Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
