Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
